While the real estate market environment is influenced by a wide range of risk factors, the overall view of the office real estate markets is characterized by stable expectations.

Sentiment-based data currently reflects the prevailing uncertainty arising from a variety of causes. The model-based forecasts that are included in the result of the gif/CRES consensus office market forecast also currently show the influence of the uncertain market environment. However, this influence has so far been limited to the fact that the forecasts are no longer as positive as in the past. However, there are no signs of a crisis scenario.

According to the researchers’ calculations, this is reflected above all in an increase in vacancy rates, while top rents and yields are forecast to be more stable up to the end of next year.

The top yields in the five cities under review remain below 3%: Berlin and Munich have the lowest values at 2.5%, around 10 basis points below the most recently reported values.

Vacancies: Noticeable increase in Berlin

At all locations, an increase in vacancy rates is expected at the still very low level of vacancies – most strongly in Berlin, least in Düsseldorf. Since the expected increases will continue to be moderate, the overall picture will hardly change: Frankfurt and Düsseldorf have relatively high vacancy rates, and by the end of 2023 it will be over 8% in Frankfurt, while Berlin, Hamburg and Munich will have significantly lower office vacancy rates. Due to the relatively strong increase that is predicted for the Berlin market, the rate there is likely to approach the 5% mark.

Prime rents: sideways movement with positive facets

The overall picture is characterized by stable expectations of rental development, with even slight increases expected for the Hamburg and Munich markets. Surprisingly, the same applies to Berlin, although a significant increase in vacancies is expected there. The forecast increases in prime rents add up to around 4% in the federal capital over the years 2022 and 2023.